Z模型与上市公司ST 摘 要 随着我国股票市场的发展完善、企业管理模式的进步、投资者理财观念的升级证券市场上的各个主体对于能及早、准确的预测上市公司发生财务困境的需求越来越强烈。本文正是将国外非常有名的财务困境预测模型Z模型应用到我国的股票市场由于在国内股票交易中实行的特殊政策，通常认为被实行特别处理（ST或*ST）就是公司出现财务困境的标志因此，本文通过选取46家ST（或*ST）样本公司并对它们进行静态、动态的分析归纳它们在被实行特别处理前五年间Z值的变化特点，找出支持这些特点的因素从而验证了Z模型对于我国现行股市上市公司发生ST具有良恏的预测能力和适用性。 一、序言··················································1 二、文献回顾··············································1 三、Z模型介绍············································2 四、研究设计··············································3 （一）样本选择············································3 （二）指标定义············································3 （三）数据描述············································4 五、实证检验··············································4 （一）动态比较及结果······································4 （二）Z模型的适用性分析··································7 六、结论与局限性································